财报分析的一些技术以及常用的Ratio

金融

一、财报分析的框架

通常我们进行一家公司进行财报分析，我们需要遵循怎么样的框架，如下：

fra-analysis

在这里我们着重关注三个部分：

  1. Common-Size Analysis
  2. Ratios
  3. Equity Analysis,Credit Analysis and Segement Reporting

二、Common-Size Analysis

1. Common-Size Analysis of the B/S: Balance sheet account /Total Asset
bs-common-size
2. Common-Size Analysis of the I/S: Income statement account /Revenue
is-common-size
3. Common-Size Analysis of the C/F: 1. Cash flow statement account / Revenue 2. Cash outflow /Total cash outflow 3. Cash inflow / Total cash inflow

三、Ratio and Ratio analysis

financial-ratio

1. Activity Ratios 经营比率

  • Receivable turnover = Revenue / Average receivable
  • Days of sales outstanding(DSO) = 365 / Receivable turnover
     
  • Invetory turnover = COGS / Average inventory
  • Days of inventory on hand(DOH) = 365 /Inventory turnover
     
  • Payable turnover = Purchase / Average trade payable
  • Number of days of payable = 365 /Payable turnover
     
  • Working capital turnover = Revenue / Average working capital
  • Fixed asset turnover = Revenue / Average net fixed assets
  • Total asset turnover = Revenue / Average total assets

2. Liquidity Ratio 流动比率

  • Current Ratio = Current assets / Current liabilities
  • Quic Ratio = (Short-term marketable security + Receivable) / Current liabilities
  • Cash Ratio = (Short-term marketable security) / Current liabilities
  • Defensive interval = (Short-term marketable security) / Daily cash expenditures

 

  • Operating cycle = DOH + DSO
  • Cash conversion cycle = DOH + DSO - Number of days of payables

3. Solvency Ratios

  • Debt-to-equity = Total Debt / Total equity
  • Debt-to-capital = Total Debt / (Total equity + Total equity)
  • Debt-to-assets = Total Debt / Total assets
  • Financial leverage = Average total assets / Average total equity

注： Total debt is the sum of interest-bearing shor-term & long-term debt

 

Coverage ratio

 

  • Interest coverage = EBIT / Interest
  • Fixed charge coverage = (EBIT+ lease payments) / (Interest + Lease payments)

4. Profitbility Ratios

Return on Sales:

  • Gross profit margin
  • Operating profit margin
  • Pretax margin
  • Net profit margin

Return on Investment

  • Operating ROA = Operating income / Average total assets
  • ROA = Net income / Average total assets
  • Return on total capital = EBIT / Average short and long-term debt equity
  • ROE = Net income / Average total equity
  • Return on common equity = Net income - Prefered dividends / Average common equity

四、DUPONT ANALYSIS 杜邦分析法

Duponit-analysis

  1. ROE = NI / Average shareholder’s Equity
  2. ROE = ROA * Leverage
  3. ROE = Net profit margin * Total Asset turnover * Leverage
  4. ROE = Tax burden * Interest burden * EBIT margin * Total Asset turnover * Leverage

五、Quity analysis and valuation ratios

Valuation-ratio

六、Credit Analysis

Z-Score，“Altman (1968) and Altman, Haldeman, and Narayanan (1977) found that financial ratios could be combined in an effective model for predicting bankruptcy. Altman’s initial work involved creation of a Z-score that was able to correctly predict financial distress.”

z-score

注：如果z-score低于1.8，那么这家公司就有很大的可能意味着可能会破产。这家公司是针对于成熟性的公司，注意使用范围。